5 th Oil and Gas Market Analysis

Course review:

International Business House and ICE Futures are pleased to present the annual ‘Oil and Gas Market Analysis’ training course.

The course provides an overview of the factors underlying the pricing of the energy markets. Delegates will gain a strong understanding of the fundamental drivers affecting the valuation of energy sources. Economic, Geographical, political, strategic and comparative factors are considered.

This programme also explains the techniques required to forecast future prices in the oil and gas markets using charts and technical analysis. It will cover the different types of charts and their construction, chart patterns and the more commonly used technical indicators. Examples and workshops provide the opportunity to explore the potential for technical analysis and charting.

The participants of the course will be issued an industry certificate of the ICE Futures.

PROGRAMME:

DAY 1

John Fry, Training Delivery Manager, ICE Futures

Development of the markets

Geographical factors:

• Pipeline/shipping
• Localised weather reports
• Seasonality
• Locality
• Transport and the supply chain
• Refining, crude selection nd GPW

Political factors:

• Cartel/trade agreements
• Global events
• Taxation/trade tariffs
• Regulation/legislation
• Environmental pressures

Comparative factors

• Preference shift
• Transaction costs
• Alternative commodities
• Production yields
• Relative quality

Background information:

• Market developments
• Types of oil and gas
• Terminology

Economic factors:

• Production/consumption
• Storage availability/costs
• Insurance costs
• Interest rates
• Transportation
• Currency rates

Other related markets

Technical analysis - basic principles

DAY 2

Julian Lee, Senior Energy Analyst, Centre for Global Energy Studies

Fundamentals of oil and gas
Basic principles

• Upstream marginal and average costs
• Capital intensity
• Exploration and Production
• Crude oil characteristics
• Refining
• Oil industry structure
• Oil price volatility

The geography of oil and gas

Oil demand

• Global demand growth
• Shifting balances between OECD and Non-OECD
• The changing balance of products

Oil Production

• Major producing regions
• Production trends

Oil trade

• Major oil trade flows

OPEC

• The role of OPEC

Modelling the oil market

• Why do we want to model the oil market?
• Modelling demand
• Oil price determination
• Oil inventories

Oil & Gas market outlook

• What drove oil prices to $150/bbl in 2008 - Futures or fundamentals?
• What stopped the collapse early in 2009?
• What is driving the price rebound?
• Where will oil prices go from here?
• Is oil price stability possible?

DAY 3

Mark Lewis, Managing Director, EMC-Energy Market Consultants (UK) Ltd

Regional Market Analysis - Russia & CIS in a Global Context

• Mid Term Outlook for Oil Prices
• Annual Average Oil Price Forecast

The Downstream:

• Mid term outlook for Global Refining
• Why we are heading for a Refining Surplus?
• Forecast FSU Crude Exports

Natural Gas

• Natural Gas Exports: Pipeline and LNG
• Gas Pipelines

Steve Terry, CITAC Global Ltd

• Short Term Market Analysis
• Refining Sector Outlook
• Medium Term Considerations
• Tanker Market Outlook
• After five years of tightness a return to the more normal state of surplus across the industry.
• But different from the 1990s..
• Latest Economic Outlook