Environmental Risk and Uncertainty for Decision-Makers

Upon completion of the course, you will gain:

• Understanding of the concepts of environmental risk and uncertainty
• Exposure to a range of quantitative and qualitative tools for assessing and communicating risk and uncertainty
• The ability to identify and apply appropriate tools for a given risk problem
• Insights into the the role of risk-based evidence in decision-making
• The ability to identify evidence appropriate for supporting environmental decision-making.

Knowledge will be delivered through a combination of presentations, case study analysis (e.g. climate change, shale gas, nanomaterials), and group work. The course will cover three core concepts (risk analysis, uncertainty, risk communication). These concepts will be contextualised using a group project. This engaging approach ensures that participants apply their knowledge and makes them aware of the realities of risk assessment and communication, particularly the challenges of managing uncertainty (e.g. lack of data, conflicting values), and data integration. Participants will also receive training in teamwork, collaboration, influence, and consensus building. Daily tasks will provide participants with real-time feedback about progress and opportunity to reinforce their understanding of the concepts.

Specifically, the course will cover:

Principles of risk assessment: Problem formulation (hazard identification, source-pathway-receptor models).

Risk analysis: Risk characterisation (comparing chemical exposure limits, understanding spatial and temporal extent, assessing cumulative risk), risk prioritisation, dealing with uncertainty (uncertainty factors, probability density functions), consequence assessment (Monte Carlo simulation, risk ranking, expert judgment), 2D risk communication, and probability assessment.

Risk and uncertainty management: Understanding and measuring uncertainty, appraising management options, understanding the principles of risk management (ALARP, Precautionary Principle), cumulative and complex risks (e.g. cascade failure).