Predictive Mapping for Crime: GIS-Based Training

The course focuses on exploiting analytical methods for repeat victimisation (RV), near repeat victimisation (NRV) and hotspot analysis.

We begin by critiquing approaches for predicting where and when crime is likely to occur in the future.

We then focus on the technical process for identifying RV, and the metrics used for measuring these repeats. This helps to establish the extent of RV and the impact that any initiative may have in addressing RVs.

We'll explore the theory underpinning RV (boost and flag accounts), and extend this by considering the optimal foraging behaviour of offenders. This leads us towards evidencing patterns of NRV, and how NRV can be measured and used in a predictive policing strategy.

We'll then look at mapping applications that can be used for predicting where crime is likely to happen in the future. This includes a critique of hotspot analysis, prospective mapping tools, and buffering areas of riskaround recent incidents.

We'll discuss the response opportunities that follow predictive mapping analysis, including:

• tactical options for reducing future victimisation
• offender detection opportunities
• public reassurance
• strategic resource targeting