Risk Modeling

Risk Modeling Skills (I105) is an online course run in weekly modules over 4 weeks. Within those 4 weeks you will become a modeler who understands:

• how to convert your existing deterministic financial models into probabilistic risk models
• the principles of Monte Carlo simulation and how to apply them
• how to present statistical results in a clear and understandable way

If you participate fully in the course and have undertaken all the homework assignments but feel by the end of the 4 weeks that we have not delivered on that straightforward commitment, we’ll give you all your money back. It’s that simple.

Risk Modeling is an online course that applies FAST modeling design and construction techniques. You will be taught to apply these techniques as you overlay risk and uncertainty on to a simple financial model. The existing deterministic inputs to the model will be replaced with their probabilistic counterparts in a step-by-step modeling approach that shows how the added complexity that risk introduces can be managed and understood.

The course starts with an introduction to how risk and uncertainty can be represented using probability functions and shows how a register of risks can be introduced into an existing financial model in a systematic and robust way. You will learn how to implement and control risks and uncertainties to financial parameters, money and time. You will also learn how relationships between risk inputs can be represented and controlled, the effect those relationships have on the model outputs and how those outputs can be presented.

Risk modeling is aimed at those people who need to build, modify and run probabilistic risk models.

There are two options available for this course:

1. 4 weekly live tutorials plus personal support package - $875
2. 4 weekly live tutorials only - $575

This course is delivered online. Find out more about the benefits of Financial Mechanics Online Financial Modeling Training programme and the options available for online training.

Live online tutorials take place on the same time and day over the 4 weeks of the course. During the live online session there will be plenty of time for you to ask questions. You will also be given homework assignments each week. Depending on the training options you have chosen, the homework modeling you do will be reviewed by our instructors and detailed, individual, scored feedback will be returned to you prior to the next tutorial.

Each live online tutorial will follow the same format
25 minutes: Round up of key issues and questions from the previous week’s homework assignment.
55 minutes: Tutorial on the new topics for that week with a demonstration by the instructor and an interactive discussion.
10 minutes: Setting of a new homework assignment for the coming week

Over the 4 weeks of the course you will progress towards producing a fully-functioning risk model.

In between each weekly tutorial, as you progress through the homework assignments and review the course material, you will be able to post questions and share your thoughts with other course participants on a dedicated course forum. Your instructors will check into the forum daily and respond to unanswered questions and provide you with further support

The 4 sessions of the course cover the following topics:

1. Basic principles:
   • What kind of risks are there?
   • Why undertake probabilistic risk analysis?
   • Some basic probability and statistics;
   • ;
   • Building, running and understanding a simple risk model.
2. Adding risk inputs; output histograms and s-curves; risk registers and what they should contain; different types of risk and how they can be modeled; switching risks on and off.
3. Controlling the simulation; relationships between risk inputs; significance, correlation and Tornado charts.
4. Modeling time risks and understanding the boundaries of the model.

Requirements

Attendees should have a good understanding of MS Excel, preferably as a result of attending our I101 FAST Modeling Skills Online course or T101 FAST Modeling Skills course.