Petroleum Risk Analysis and Portfolio Management

Risk and uncertainty are fundamentally embedded in the exploration and production business – arguably there is no business development without risk – yet the distinction between risk and uncertainty is often confused, and attempts to effectively manage risk and uncertainty are often poor in the industry.

This 3 day course offers attendees the opportunity to explore why this is case and, using practical case material, use tools and techniques to effectively manage both technical uncertainty and project risk.

Risk and uncertainty definitions are clarified and linked to definitions of common financial indicators. Common methods of quantifying uncertainties and risks are then described, from simple parametric methods to probabilistic simulations leading to the use of Decision Tree Analysis to analyse problems. These tools are then applied to technical issues over the field life cycle, from exploration risking to the quantification of value of information during field appraisal and on to production forecasting using both deterministic and probabilistic methodology.