Hypothesis Testing Analysis: Crime and Intelligence

We'll discuss the current good and bad things about analysis production (its content and commissioning) and examine how a hypothesis testing approach can improve the explanatory substance of analytical materials.

You'll then be guided through the steps of the process using existing crime (or other community safety) problems.

The following will be covered during this short course:

We begin by discussing the current problems with analysis and the role it should play to inform intelligence-led decision-making. We then introduce the concept of hypothesis testing and illustrate it using examples from other fields of popular science. We also discuss how a hypothesis testing analysis process can fit into existing police/CSP National Intelligence Model (NIM) processes and the problem-solving SARA process, and suggest a structure for problem profiles that use a hypothesis testing approach.

We'll look at the production of an overview, which is the first stage in the process for constructing a problem profile following the hypothesis testing approach. This involves recording key features about the problem so that it can be clearly defined. The overview is then used by key stakeholders to help them determine the main reasons why the problem exists i.e. the hypotheses.

We'll look at how to articulate hypotheses based on the many reasons provided by stakeholders to explain the problem. We also recommend a process that helps you qualify and shortlist the hypotheses that you'll then select for directing the analysis.

In this session we demonstrate that no extra skills or training in new techniques are required to test hypotheses - as analysts you can use your existing knowledge. This session includes identifying the data that are required for testing hypotheses, the techniques you can use use and examples of how the results of the analyses can be presented.

In this session you'll look at how the results from hypothesis testing can be interpreted and critiqued. You'll also be shown how the results from testing each hypothesis can be brought together to provide a richer array of intelligence and evidence that helps to explain why a crime problem exists.

We finish by reviewing how a problem profile can be written by following the hypothesis testing approach. We'll also identify a number of resources that provide additional reference information to help you adopt this process in the workplace.