Modelling and Managing Uncertainty in the Subsurface

ncertainty quantification is a synthesis course that brings together various disciplines such as geology, geophysics, reservoir engineering, data science and decision analysis. Uncertainty quantification is not seen as some posterior analysis, or skill, but as key to successful decision making in real field situations. Participants will learn how a proper management of uncertainty reduces costs and unwanted surprises.

In this short course we cover a modern approach to managing and modelling uncertainty in subsurface formations within a decision making framework. We outline an uncertainty quantification workflow that focuses on several elements:

• Decision-driven sensitivity analysis to determine key reservoir variables
• Geological scenario development to avoid reducing uncertainty artificially and during history matching
• Use of seismic and production data for model rejection
• Issues of computational challenges through model validation and screening

For in-house presentations this course can also be arranged as 5-day "Workshop" with practical exercises.